Category Archives: Science & Scams

European Mortality Monitoring Statistics have been retroactively altered

January 1, 2024 werner Leave a comment

So as I am reaching the end of the year, I decided to extend the overmortality statistics from a year ago. As you might remember the overmortality was at about +13% for the entire EU. However, this year I cannot easily extend the overmortality plot because Euromomo retroactively modified their data.

On 1 January 2023 I downloaded the pooled mortality statistics. Below the some lines from there. The last column are the mortality stats

Total;2018-01;71654.22;74809.55;73226.22;76404.13;85501
Total;2018-02;71885.53;75069.23;73471.63;76678.24;83481
Total;2018-03;72034.98;75238.03;73630.7;76856.89;83207
Total;2018-04;72100.28;75312.86;73700.74;76936.58;80969
Total;2018-05;72080.58;75292.45;73680.68;76915.8;80345
Total;2018-06;71976.37;75177.37;73571.07;76795.2;81013
Total;2018-07;71789.65;74970.03;73374.1;76577.37;83458
Total;2018-08;71523.74;74674.58;73093.5;76266.9;85104

Now, let’s have a look at the data I just downloaded on 1 January 2024. Again the last column are the mortality stats

Total;2018-01;29408.44;31278.34;30338.59;32227.6;37022
Total;2018-02;29499.68;31383.58;30436.77;32340;36227
Total;2018-03;29562.04;31455.38;30503.81;32416.64;35729
Total;2018-04;29594.66;31492.49;30538.66;32456.05;34329
Total;2018-05;29597.12;31494.31;30540.8;32457.54;34123
Total;2018-06;29569.48;31460.93;30510.32;32421.21;34450
Total;2018-07;29512.3;31393.11;30447.86;32347.94;34992
Total;2018-08;29426.57;31292.27;30354.64;32239.36;35193

This is a massive modification to the data

Regression between old and new data

The plot above illustrates the modifications made to the data. Basically: a death now only counts for 42% of a death and each week 50 deaths were removed from the data. Or the other way around: during the pandemic every death counted twice and extra deaths were added. No idea what it is. But this type of change requires an explanation.

How does this affect the overmortality ?

After performing a regression from the new data to the old data it is possible the extend the data we had. This lead to the following overmortality plot

Compare this to the old overmortality, which had the following plot

As can be seen, the over mortality in 2022 is suddenly a lower than it was a year ago. Given that nothing else but the data was changed, we must conclude that the new data from euromomo has been altered to fit their model of reality better.

New overmortality statistics

Given that we can no longer trust the data from the euromomo, it is pointless to create a new overmortality plot. Nevertheless here it is for a window of 13 weeks

This leaves us with an overmortality of about 6%, yet as said, if we cannot rely on the veracity of the data, then this is just a ballpark figure. Not only that, we might need to assume it is a lot higher than this as there would otherwise be no reason to modify the data.

Science & Scams

Updated over mortality plot

February 25, 2023 werner Leave a comment

I updated the over mortality statistics I did last year. Horizontally weeks, vertically = mortality/expected-1 (%) Window width is about half a year, making the curve stable and less sensitive to time shifts.

A breakdown

march 2020 – corona
beginning 2021 – euthanasia instead of assuming you can help corona patients
middle of 2021 vaccination rolls out
end of 2021, success of the vaccination campaign
year 2022, died suddenly

Drugs, Science & Scams

Are Corona Vaccines Safe & Efficient ? A look at some data

December 17, 2021 werner 2 Comments

I have been delving into some data analysis again. There are two pictures I would like to share to clearly demonstrate the futility of the current corona vaccines. The plots are based on excess mortality in the EU and the vaccination rate as provided by the EU.

The first plot shows the overmortality compared to the 5 years before corona (red curve). The green curve shows (on an unrelated axis) how many people got their first vaccine. What is surprising, is that the vaccine correlated with a spike in overmortality. This is to be expected because the elderly were the first to receive them. From that perspective: the vaccine functions as a weed-whacker. If the vaccine doesn’t kill grandpa, then corona probably won’t either.

The second point often heard is: the vaccines are efficient. Looking at this plot, this is difficult to confirm. The first peak, had a total overmortality of ~170’000. The second peak an overmortality of ~275’000. And the third peak, which we are only halfway, already has an overmortality of ~161’000. When that peak is over we are very likely looking at ~300’000. Thus: there is no measurable positive impact of vaccination. You might argue: ‘yes but without the vaccine it would be worse’. On the contrary, Such ‘pandemic’ tends to become endemic after a series of peaks, even without vaccination. So the lower peak amplitude we see now, would very likely have happened without the vaccine as well.

In the first plot I only looked at excess mortality towards the baseline, without adding any standard deviations. If we add 4 sigmas, we end up with pretty much the same results. Peak1 ~ 47’000 death, Peak2: ~91’000 death. Peak3: currently 65’000 death, expected ~117’000. However, in this plot it becomes even more apparent that vaccination had no measurable impact.

Any feedback that does not involve calling me names is welcomed. In particular I am interested to look further into the difference between the vaccinated vs non-vaccinated group, but it is truly hard to find any reliable data on this.